WHEN POINTS DON'T MATTER

I was trying to find an interesting angle for Penn State's game this weekend against the Hawkeyes and I think I found it.

Since Penn State joined the Big Ten, the Lions have a losing record against just three teams. The two obvious ones are Michigan (4-10) and Ohio State (6-10), but you might not have guessed that Iowa (5-6) is the third. The Lions won the first three games in the series after joining the Big Ten, but Iowa has won six of the last eight matchups, including five in a row from 2000-2004.

The series has featured some memorable moments over the years, including the first overtime game in Penn State history in 2000 (a double OT loss to the Hawkeyes) and the lamentable 6-4 homecoming loss in 2004. Back to that interseting angle that I was talking about though (click on it to enlarge)...

Notice that only two teams, Michigan and Ohio State, in the Big Ten average more points than the Lions in head-to-head matchups against Penn State since 1993. But look at Iowa and remember that they are the third team that has a winning record against the Lions. Although the Hawkeyes are leading the series, Penn State outscores Iowa, on average, by nearly ten points every time they play.

If that shows anything it's that this series can't be predicted. It doesn't matter that Penn State has the better team this year or is favored to win the game on Saturday, it's going to take a strong effort from the Lions to come away with a victory against Kirk Ferentz and company at Kinnick Stadium, a place and a team that has always given Penn State problems.