Sunday, November 16, 2008

IT COULD STILL HAPPEN

After the shock and pain wore off from the loss to Iowa, I am sure many Penn State fans besides me started to devise ways in their mind for the Lions to climb back into the national title game. Don't get me wrong, a Big Ten Championship and Rose Bowl berth is a tremendous accomplishment considering the Lions weren't even picked by "those who know" to finish in the top three of the conference before the season started, but once the Lions flirted with perfection for ten weeks and were on the trail to Miami anything else pales in comparison.

The combination of wins and losses (however unlikely) for the seven teams in front of Penn State is shrinking with each passing week, and the Lions didn't get any help this weekend. Have no fear, as long as there is even a faint pulse in Penn State's national title hopes, The Floating Lion will be posting scenarios to get you back to Miami. Here's this week's:

8. Penn State (10-1)
Games Left: vs. #18 Michigan State
What We Need: Win impressively. Everything becomes moot unless the Lions can take care of business in a big way against Sparty. Saturday's game is the last chance for Penn State to impress the pollsters and can deliver the Lions to the conference crown.

7. Utah (11-0)
Games Left: vs. #15 BYU
What We Need: Don't join a BCS conference. It's highly unlikely that Utah will get a crack to play for the national title no matter what happens, so, while a loss to BYU would be nice, Utah won't stand in the Lions way of the championship game.

6. USC (10-1)
Games Left: vs. Notre Dame, @ UCLA
What We Need: Even though USC might not win the Pac-10 Conference, it can still make it to the title game, and it wouldn't be the first time (see Oklahoma in 2003). So the Lions need an upset in the last two games. Could Charlie Weis call the right plays for the upset in Los Angeles? Could Slick Rick Neuheisel make good on his promise to end the Trojans' dynasty in the city of angels? Let's hope so.

5. Oklahoma (10-1)
Games Left: vs. #2 Texas Tech, @ #13 Oklahoma State, potential Big XII Title Game
What We Need: Oklahoma will have to wear two hats in the last two weeks of the season as far as Penn State fans are concerned. The Lions need Oklahoma to spoil the Red Raiders' perfect season this week, but then slip up against in-state rival Oklahoma St. the following weekend in Stillwater. This would give the Sooners two losses and eliminate them, while leaving it up to the BCS whether Texas or Texas Tech will go to the Big XII championship game. More on that later.

4. Florida (10-1)
Games Left: vs. The Citadel, @ #19 Florida State, vs. #1 Alabama
What We Need: The Gators are on fire right now, and since Penn State needs an opponent in the title game, why not let it be Florida? However, if the Gators are feeling generous, a loss to the rival Seminoles would definitely help Penn State's chances in case one of the other scenarios falls through. As far as the conference championship game against the Tide, the preferred winner of that game depends on the outcomes of the Florida/Florida St. and Auburn/Alabama games. Either Florida or Alabama (or both) have to lose its rivalry game and then beat the other team in the SEC Championship Game.

3. Texas (10-1)
Games Left: vs. Texas A&M, potential Big XII Title Game
What We Need: The Longhorns need Texas Tech to lose to Oklahoma and then finish as the highest-ranked team among the three of them in the BCS Standings to represent the Big XII South against Missouri in the conference championship game. A loss to Texas A&M would eliminate Texas from national title discussion, but even if it wins out it's not guaranteed a BCS berth. Consider that only two teams from any conference can make it to the BCS, and we are counting on Missouri being one of them from the Big XII, two of the other big three can't go (either Texas, Texas Tech or Oklahoma).

2. Texas Tech
Games Left: @ #5 Oklahoma, vs. Baylor, potential Big XII Title Game
What We Need: The Red Raiders can make it easy on everybody and lose both of their last two games, but they must lose once before playing in the conference championship game if Penn State hopes to finish in front of them. Texas Tech, like the other two teams from the Big XII on this list, would need to lose the conference championship game if it make it that far. But again, since the Big XII can only have two teams represent it in the BCS, a Texas Tech loss to the Sooners would realy jeopardize the Raiders chances of being one of them.

1. Alabama
Games Left: vs. Auburn, vs. #4 Florida
What We Need: It might seem like a stretch right now, but funny things can happen in rivalry games and Auburn could upset Alabama in the Iron Bowl. Should that happen, Penn State fans can then root for The Tide to beat Florida the following week if the Gators get by Florida State.

So there it is. A few bounces and you're scrambling to get that same hotel room in South Beach you just dropped last Saturday night.

The important things to remember are: Utah can't make it so don't worry about them. Secondly, these scenarios are counting on the fact that only two teams from the Big XII can make it to the BCS and Missouri is going to be one of them by way of its conference championship game. That would eliminate two of the big three that are in the top six right now. Finally, don't forget that Penn State needs to play somebody so one of the above teams can win out and it won't affect the Lions.

Don't stop believing.

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