With Tech's win over #1 Texas, they catapulted themselves to a tie for first place in the computer rankings with Alabama. The BCS standings are generated through percentages, and because Tech had nearly as many votes as Penn State in the two human polls, the computer portion put them ahead of the Lions. Actually, the computers think so highly of Texas, that even with one loss, Texas remains ahead of Penn State in the computers. (Texas is 3rd, Penn State is 4th). That is completely absurd.
With that said, let's all just chill. There's no reason to get in a big tussy about anything yet. Let Texas Tech enjoy their time as the #2 ranked team. It's not going to last very long. After a home game with #9 Oklahoma State, the Red Raiders would have to win 3 consecutive games. At #6 Oklahoma, then Baylor, then a Big 12 Championship against Mizzou. I just don't see that happening.
Alabama would be more likely to win their remaining games, but still has a very tough road ahead. An interesting homecoming for Alabama's head coach Nick Saban awaits this weekend when Bama visits #16 LSU. (Saban was the head coach at LSU before fleeing to the NFL for 2 seasons. This is Saban's first trip back to Baton Rouge). Many Tigers fans feel betrayed by Saban and are hoping to spoil his return. If Alabama finds a way to beat LSU, they will have to play Mississippi State and Auburn to remain undefeated and clinch a spot in the SEC Championship game. There, they would likely be playing Florida, a team that looks unstoppable right now.
If Bama managed to win these last 4 games, finishing the regular season at 13-0, they would be deserving of a spot in the title game. Likewise, if Texas Tech found themselves at 13-0 a month from now, they would also be deserving of a spot. This is a month down the road. Last year, teams ranked 1-2 in the BCS finished the season 3-7. A ton of football is left to be played.
There is also a notion that Penn State could be jumped by a 1 loss team from a better conference. Although technically, anything could happen, this is highly unlikely. #4 Texas, #5 Florida, and #6 Oklahoma are not in position to jump Penn State in either human polls, and only Texas has a higher computer ranking. Texas does not have any remaining games on their schedule that would suggest more votes in the human polls, Florida's computer ranking can not improve until the SEC Championship game, and Oklahoma is just too far behind right now to jump an undefeated Penn State.
Undefeated is the key. Joe Paterno said in his Tuesday press conference, the only thing he is worried about is Iowa. He's worried for good reason. Iowa, although 5-4, is a pretty good football team. All of their losses have combined for only 12 points, and they have outscored their opponents at home 160-46. They would love nothing more than to spoil Penn State's undefeated dream season. Before worrying about anything else, let's jump on board with Joe. Take care of Iowa.
One last thought to leave you with. The last time Penn State was 9-0 was 1999. That year, Minnesota kept the Lions from becoming 10-0 with a 24-23 heart breaker. Also that year, the Nittany Lions had a different group of players. Soon to have the #1, and #2 picks in the NFL draft, Penn State did not have the kind of focus that this year's team has. Maybe it was because of a star-studded cast looking ahead, I don't know. I just don't see this team doing that.
Since ESPN's Outside the Lines broadcast in August, the entire country has seen the obstacles this 2008 squad has had to overcome. Aside from the off field incidents, lets not forget the on field adversity Penn State has faced. Twice, Penn State came back from touchdown deficits against a ranked Illinois team en route to a 38-24 victory. After an atrocious start against Michigan, Penn State battled back to trounce the Wolverines for the first time since 1996. Then, the team effort against Ohio State, in Columbus, at primetime, showed how special this 2008 team really is.
Up to this point, the Nittany Lions have proved they can win. With three games remaining, they're going to have to keep it going. There is a lot of football left to be played, everywhere in the country. If Penn State can continue their winning ways, everything else will take care of itself. LET'S GO STATE!
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Andrew, I agree with your assessment of our situation right now. I too was upset at the leapfrog of Tech to #2. But with the crippled system as it is, it makes some sense. Penn State had no such luxury to play a higher ranked opponent, let alone #1, to tweak the computers. I'm not predicting an upset this weekend, but a better stage couldn't be better set for an LSU upset. They have to be angry, and hungry to turn around their season that had higher aspirations. I know they tried to downplay the Saban factor, but it has to be a lingering motivation to a degree. The pressure will clearly be on Bama moreso than LSU. How they respond to that will be a great factor in this one. Look for LSU to open up the playbook and let the chips fall where they may. We will know much more about Bama AND Tech come Saturday night. As has been stated, I just do not realistically envision them both winning out, but if they do, hats off to them. Tech leapfrogged us, that's ok. The only injustice that could happen under the present system, of course, would be Florida {the most likely of the 1 loss teams) leapfrogging an undefeated Penn State. Not likely to happen, but you can never say never. Defense still does win championships more than offense does. I don't think those defenses in the Big 12 and SEC match up with Penn State. Or for that matter, USC, who is not a factor in this. So, all we can do is sit back, win out BIG, and let it all unfold. GO STATE!
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