MY FRUSTRATION...GRAPHICALLY

If I were writing this post two nights ago immediately after Penn State's 73-59 loss to Ohio State it would appear slightly different. Shoehorned in between the dense collection of curses and death threats would have been some coherent thoughts, maybe even a shimmer of wit...whatever I could have managed through my sobbing. Instead, I decided to let the frustration simmer the last couple of days and express my grief through Microsoft Excel.

Penn State is too close to a tournament bid to start whining about what they did wrong specifically against the Buckeyes (shot selection, transition game, rebounding), but it is useful to see if any trends are developing as it heads into the final home stretch with three games left on the docket. Most coaches will agree, the most important stretches of a game, especially one as volatile as college basketball, are the first and last minutes of each half. Momentum and confidence are most readily established during these stanzas, and punctuating each half with a strong beginning and end is the most assured way to get a victory.

After the monumental win over Illinois last week, few fans were expecting the kind of start that Penn State opened with when the Lions fell behind 19-2 to begin the game against Ohio State. A look at the stats disagrees with your optimism however, and shows that the slow start is exactly what we should have been expecting from Penn State.

This graph shows that Penn State has not led after five minutes of a game since its 72-68 win against Michigan State and that the Lions have only jumped out to an early lead in four Big Ten games so far this season. It's true that the start against Ohio State was by far the worst of the year for Penn State, but when you habitually fail to show up in the first five minutes of a game, it will cost you, as it has in four of the last six games.

Still, the Lions roared back on Tuesday night and seemed to firmly put that bad beginning behind them.

As this graph shows, the last five minutes of the first half has been pretty erratic for the Lions. In six of its 14 conference games, Penn State has taken momentum into the locker-room by outscoring its opponents. The Lions are 4-2 (67%) in those games, and 4-5 (44%) in games when they have been outscored in the last five minutes before halftime.

Shifting to the last twenty minutes of the game, this graph shows how Penn State fares in the opening minutes of the second half. The Lions, although they had an advantage in six of their 15 conference games, never outscored the opponent by more than five points in the first five minutes. Much like the first five minutes of the game, this is an area that the Lions need to put more effort into.

Finally, and perhaps the most misleading of all trends, the final five minutes of a game.


This chart is difficult to read because several of these games were already decided for much of the time being displayed, leading to inflated results. Like the end of the Michigan game at home, when the Lions were well in control but the Wolverines just continued to bomb threes.

I guess the main idea to grasp from these charts is that, with one exception, Penn State has been consistently inconsistent in its performance during the most crucial times of the basketball game - the first and last five minutes of each half. All season long, the Lions have been little more than a wild roller coaster ride during these telling time spans, equal parts aggressor and punching bag. The lone exception is the first five minutes of the game.

Disturbingly, Penn State has gotten the jump on its opponent after the opening tip only once in the last eight games, a dangerous way to play when absolutely every win counts. It was especially disappointing to see the Lions, despite coming off of a huge win at Illinois and a six-day rest, get blown out of the water by Ohio State in the first few minutes of Tuesday's game. The Lions have shown that on any given night, they can play with any team in the league, but there are only three nights left in the regular season, and they can't afford to sleepwalk through a single minute of any of them.