Sunday, October 19, 2008

COMPUTERS HATE PENN STATE


The only rankings that count in college football were released Saturday, and the results were mixed if you are a Penn State fan.

The Bowl Championship Series (BCS) standings (pdf) that will eventually determine which two teams will meet in Miami, Fl for the national title were revealed and had the Lions slotted at number three, right behind Texas and Alabama. That was no surprise, those three teams have been ranked in that order in each of the last two AP and Coaches polls. The shock (and concern) comes from the number next to Penn State's name in the average computer rank column, 7.

The Nittany Lions, one of just five remaining unbeaten teams from the big six conferences, has not impressed the computers nearly as much as they have the human voters. The Lions were ranked no higher than four by any of the computers and checked in at number eleven in Peter Wolfe's poll.

BCS RANKTEAMHARRIS POLLCOACHES POLLCOMP. AVG.
1TEXAS111
2ALABAMA222
3PENN STATE337
4OKLAHOMA454
5USC5410
6OKLAHOMA STATE883
7GEORGIA996
8TEXAS TECH7611
9OHIO STATE10105
10FLORIDA6712

As you can see above, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Georgia and Ohio State were the teams that were behind Penn State in the overall standings but had a higher computer average. It's still too early to determine if any of those teams present a threat to possibly jump Penn State by year's end, but it is disheartening to see just how little the computers respect what the Nittany Lions have done so far this season.

Much more of a concern to Penn State than the teams behind it should be the teams that are in front of it. Texas seems to be untouchable right now, both on the field and in the polls. The Longhorns, before Thanksgiving, will have played against the #'s 4 (Oklahoma), 6 (Oklahoma St.), 8 (Texas Tech) and15 (Missouri) teams in the BCS standings. Should they emerge from that stretch, a conference championship game and the big rivalry game against the Texas A&M Aggies unblemished, they will be in the National Championship game and will have certainly earned their spot.

Alabama's perch is much more precarious. Sure, theTide has surged in "big games" against Clemson and Georgia, but it has looked rather pedestrian in many of its other games, although all victories to this point. 'Bama will play against Tennessee, LSU and Auburn before season's end and, if they continue to win, will represent the SEC's West Division in the league's championship game against probably Georgia or Florida. At this point, an undefeated season for Alabama seems like a long shot, but it's already more than halfway to that accomplishment.

It doesn't seem likely that the Lions will be able to leapfrog either the 'Horns or Tide should all three remain unbeaten. Penn State has just one ranked team, Ohio State, remaining on its schedule, but a win on the road against the Buckeyes should carry enough clout to keep the Lions safely in front of its pursuers for at least the next few weeks.

Overall, the Big Ten has four teams in the BCS Top 25, but the Lions only play one of those teams. The conference is tied for the second most teams ranked with the SEC, the Big XII leads the way with six. USC is the lone member of the Pac-10 Conference listed and the ACC and Big East have two teams each, but all are listed outside of the top 15.

3 comments:

AndyPsu07 said...

How is it possible for us to be ranked 7 by the computers?!? That's completely ridiculous!! Ohio State, Georgia, and Oklahoma all have one loss and are ahead of us. Makes absolutely no sense to me at all

Jdm8286 said...

Plus, Ohio State is ranked 5th and USC is ranked 10th by the computers. I seem to remember the Trojans playing the Buckeyes five weeks ago and winning by 30.

Dan said...

That actually did happen. I watched that game! The strength of the Big 10 is killing us. The computers don't see the names that we see...to them it looks like we've played a schedule that's a combined 21-34.